tl;dr the Nuggets lineup is huge, they have an all-time great playmaker and good shooters so the Heat’s defensive options are limited. Bam vs Jokic is very important matchup as the series will both offensively and defensively revolve around them. Butler will struggle creating open shots for his team this time around so expect a scoring Jimmy Butler to show up. Anyhow, it’s the Nuggets’ series to lose and they won’t. They’re far more disciplined and controlled than the Celtics were.
Nuggets in 5.
Bad matchup for Miami.
The Miami Heat have a size problem and unfortunately, size does matter in the NBA… Consider that and how matchup hunting has been Miami’s bread and butter this postseason, this can’t be a good sign for them. Jimmy Butler excels at attacking the mismatch, drawing in two (sometimes three) defenders then kicking it out to the open man. But this series, I believe Butler will have trouble doing the same thing against the taller, stronger, but still agile Denver Nugget defenders. Expect Miami to shoot worse from 3 this series and instead, Butler to have commanding performances scoring the basketball. (Assuming Denver can make basic adjustments to keep Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic away from Butler defensively.)
On the other side of the floor, the Heat once again find themselves in trouble. The zones they played against the Celtics should cease to exist as Denver has all the tools to counteract it. They’ll bring Jokic up to the elbow, set some backscreen actions with Murray, Michael Porter Jr. (MPJ), or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) with Aaron Gordon rolling/in the dunker spot. Game over. If you see MPJ or KCP get the looks Grant Williams, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White were getting at times, Miami can kiss their chances of winning goodbye.
Miami needs the others AND someone else.
The Heat MUST have the help of the others (role players), as Shaq says it, to win. They’ve been playing well up to now and I expect them to continue doing so. Especially Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin, who was on something else in game 7. However, more than anything, the Heat need Bam Adebayo to have a good showing offensively and defensively. I’ll elaborate more on that later.
Tyler Herro’s Return? Will Duncan Robinson still play?
Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are at times, a glass of water after a handful of salt for the Heat. What I mean is, they’re instant offense and shot creators on an offensively-subpar Miami Heat team. But, on the defensive end, I hope Spoelstra thinks this through. Denver is not a team you want to give open and easy shots to.
Despite his defensive struggles, I do think Herro should start when he’s back. He can possibly get away with sticking to KCP as long as he stays disciplined, and calm when Jokic or Murray are in his vicinity. His offensive ability is too valuable this series because, again, Butler will struggle to create the same shots he’s been creating for his teammates throughout the playoffs. Herro’s offensive pressure alone will create easier shots for Miami. There’s too much potential upside for the Heat when he plays, so he’ll probably see heavy minutes on return.
As for Duncan Robinson, he’s been balling. He has incredible gravity to him and essentially changes a teams entire defensive game plan when he’s on the court. Since, no one knows knows what he’s going to do. Will he cut to the basket? Maybe a catch and shoot? O he can throw lobs to Adebayo too? How do we play this guy? No one knows.
Will Duncan play when Herro returns? Hard to say. There’s only so many minutes to go around, and so many ways you can hide someone on defense (Bruce Brown is about to abuse him). For now though, I suspect he’ll probably be used to get the Miami offense going during their dry spouts or match minutes with Jeff Green.
Jokic vs Adebayo.
I think this is the deciding matchup for the series. Not in the sense that Adebayo must outperform the former 2-time MVP for the Heat to win. Instead, I think Adebayo needs solid showings and limit Jokic’s productivity in single coverage. It’s a given that the Heat will blitz Jokic on some possessions but if Adebayo can handle Jokic on his own, they’ll have many more options on defense. Miami feeds off their defensive intensity, it’s almost as if they shoot better with every stop they get.
Meanwhile for Jokic, he must look to dismantle the Heat’s defense early. If anyone can do it, it’s the Joker. With his court vision and scoring ability, we’ve seen him time and time again destroy different defensive schemes. I expect the Nuggets to start the game running their offense exclusively through Jokic.
Who will Butler Guard?
The thing about Murray is he’s quiet until he gets going then… there’s no stopping him. You probably want Butler on Murray, so Murray can’t get going at all, but, I think giving an easier assignment to Butler is optimal. Lessening the pressure Butler has on defense will give him more juice at the end of games, allowing him to take over. Perhaps have him guard MPJ or Gordon. Either way, the Heat have to make a decision between keeping Murray under control and Butler’s stamina.
Favourites for a reason (Denver).
Well enough about Miami, let’s talk about the heavy favourites, the Nuggets. I don’t think they should be this heavily favoured since the Heat definitely have a shot but, I can’t disagree. The Nuggets are a matchup nightmare for the Heat, have two of the three best players in this series (unless Adebayo shows us differently), are well-coached, and disciplined. That alone should tell you enough.
I know I’ve just been talking about how Miami can win the series but that’s because I believe this is Denver’s to lose. A couple things have to happen for the Heat to win while in contrast, the Nuggets only need everything to be within reason/expectation.
poggers